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Yapei vs Sankara Nationals — Division One League 2025

Yapei
Yapei
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sankara Nationals
Sankara Nationals
1/25/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Yapei63%
×Draw21%
Sankara Nationals16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yapei
1.93
Sankara Nationals
0.85

Yapei creates 127% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Yapei
1.86
Sankara Nationals
1.00

allows per match

Yapei
0.71
Sankara Nationals
2.00

finishing

Yapei+0.00on par
Sankara Nationals+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yapei ↓

Sankara Nationals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Yapei or draw
84%
Yapei or Sankara Nationals
79%
Draw or Sankara Nationals
37%

Winning margin

Yapei wins by 2+
38%
Sankara Nationals wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Yapei 1+ goals
85%
Yapei 2+ goals
57%
Yapei 3+ goals
30%
Sankara Nationals 1+ goals
57%
Sankara Nationals 2+ goals
21%
Sankara Nationals 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Yapei (draw refunded)
80%
Sankara Nationals (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yapei at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Sankara Nationals away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yapei attack 1.86 + Sankara Nationals defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Sankara Nationals attack 1.00 + Yapei defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Yapei scores more
63%
level
21%
Sankara Nationals scores more
16%

Yapei at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Yapei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yapei vs Sankara Nationals

Yapei beat Sankara Nationals 1-0 in Division One League on January 25, 2026.