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Yapei vs Real Tamale — Division One League 2025

Yapei
Yapei
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
3/1/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Yapei53%
×Draw28%
Real Tamale19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yapei
1.36
Real Tamale
0.68

Yapei creates 100% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Yapei
1.86
Real Tamale
0.64

allows per match

Yapei
0.71
Real Tamale
0.86

finishing

Yapei+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yapei ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Yapei or draw
81%
Yapei or Real Tamale
72%
Draw or Real Tamale
47%

Winning margin

Yapei wins by 2+
26%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Yapei 1+ goals
74%
Yapei 2+ goals
39%
Yapei 3+ goals
16%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
49%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
15%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Yapei (draw refunded)
74%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yapei at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yapei attack 1.86 + Real Tamale defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.36

Real Tamale attack 0.64 + Yapei defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yapei scores more
53%
level
28%
Real Tamale scores more
19%

Yapei at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yapei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yapei vs Real Tamale

Yapei beat Real Tamale 2-0 in Division One League on March 1, 2026.