Yantra Polski Trambesh 0–3 Yantra Gabrovo

Yantra Polski Trambesh

FT

0 – 3

Yantra Gabrovo

3/3/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 17Gradski Stadion (Polski Trambesh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh32%

×Draw22%

Yantra Gabrovo46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yantra Polski TrambeshExpected goals in this matchYantra Gabrovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.90

Yantra Polski Trambesh

1.57

Yantra Gabrovo

1.90

Yantra Gabrovo creates 21% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 15 away

2.01

creates per match

2.60

1.20

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh

2.01

Yantra Gabrovo

2.60

allows per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh

1.20

Yantra Gabrovo

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par

Yantra Gabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Polski Trambesh ↓

Yantra Gabrovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Yantra Polski Trambesh or draw

54%

Yantra Polski Trambesh or Yantra Gabrovo

78%

Draw or Yantra Gabrovo

68%

Winning margin

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+

15%

Yantra Gabrovo wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals

79%

Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals

46%

Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals

21%

Yantra Gabrovo 1+ goals

85%

Yantra Gabrovo 2+ goals

56%

Yantra Gabrovo 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)

41%

Yantra Gabrovo (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Polski Trambesh at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Yantra Gabrovo away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 2.01 + Yantra Gabrovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.57

Yantra Gabrovo attack 2.60 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more

32%

level

22%

Yantra Gabrovo scores more

46%

Yantra Gabrovo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Yantra Gabrovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff