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Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Parva atomna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
FT
1 – 1
Parva atomna
Parva atomna
8/23/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 3Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh66%
×Draw19%
Parva atomna16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.29
Parva atomna
1.02

Yantra Polski Trambesh creates 125% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 47 away

creates per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.01
Parva atomna
0.85

allows per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.20
Parva atomna
2.57

finishing

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par
Parva atomna+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Polski Trambesh ↓

Parva atomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Yantra Polski Trambesh or draw
84%
Yantra Polski Trambesh or Parva atomna
81%
Draw or Parva atomna
34%

Winning margin

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
43%
Parva atomna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
90%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
66%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
40%
Parva atomna 1+ goals
64%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
27%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
81%
Parva atomna (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Polski Trambesh at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Parva atomna away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 2.01 + Parva atomna defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Parva atomna attack 0.85 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
66%
level
19%
Parva atomna scores more
16%

Yantra Polski Trambesh at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Yantra Polski Trambesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Parva atomna

Yantra Polski Trambesh and Parva atomna drew 1-1 in Third League - Northwest on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Polski Trambesh.