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Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
5/7/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 29Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh64%
×Draw20%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.21
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.04

Yantra Polski Trambesh creates 113% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 81 away

creates per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.01
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.88

allows per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.20
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
2.42

finishing

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Polski Trambesh ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Yantra Polski Trambesh or draw
83%
Yantra Polski Trambesh or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
80%
Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
36%

Winning margin

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
40%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
89%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
65%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
38%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
28%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
79%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Polski Trambesh at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 2.01 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.21

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
64%
level
20%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
17%

Yantra Polski Trambesh at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Yantra Polski Trambesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo

Yantra Polski Trambesh beat Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3-2 in Third League - Northwest on May 7, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Polski Trambesh.