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Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Juventus Malchika — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
5/25/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 29Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh71%
×Draw16%
Juventus Malchika13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.59
Juventus Malchika
1.00

Yantra Polski Trambesh creates 159% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 65 away

creates per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.01
Juventus Malchika
0.80

allows per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.20
Juventus Malchika
3.17

finishing

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par
Juventus Malchika+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Polski Trambesh ↓

Juventus Malchika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Yantra Polski Trambesh or draw
87%
Yantra Polski Trambesh or Juventus Malchika
84%
Draw or Juventus Malchika
29%

Winning margin

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
49%
Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
92%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
73%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
47%
Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
63%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
26%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
85%
Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Polski Trambesh at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Juventus Malchika away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 2.01 + Juventus Malchika defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.59

Juventus Malchika attack 0.80 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
71%
level
16%
Juventus Malchika scores more
13%

Yantra Polski Trambesh at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Yantra Polski Trambesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Juventus Malchika

Yantra Polski Trambesh beat Juventus Malchika 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Polski Trambesh.