Yantra Polski Trambesh 2–1 Drenovets

Yantra Polski Trambesh

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Drenovets

11/3/2023

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 13Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh66%

×Draw19%

Drenovets15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yantra Polski TrambeshExpected goals in this matchDrenovets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.98

Yantra Polski Trambesh

2.29

Drenovets

0.98

Yantra Polski Trambesh creates 134% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 68 away

2.01

creates per match

0.76

1.20

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh

2.01

Drenovets

0.76

allows per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh

1.20

Drenovets

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par

Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Polski Trambesh ↓

Drenovets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Yantra Polski Trambesh or draw

85%

Yantra Polski Trambesh or Drenovets

81%

Draw or Drenovets

34%

Winning margin

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+

43%

Drenovets wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals

90%

Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals

66%

Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals

40%

Drenovets 1+ goals

62%

Drenovets 2+ goals

26%

Drenovets 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)

82%

Drenovets (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Polski Trambesh at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 2.01 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.29

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more

66%

level

19%

Drenovets scores more

15%

Yantra Polski Trambesh at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Yantra Polski Trambesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff