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Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Boruna Tsareva livada — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
FT
3 – 0
Boruna Tsareva livada
Boruna Tsareva livada
9/10/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 6Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh67%
×Draw18%
Boruna Tsareva livada14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.31
Boruna Tsareva livada
0.96

Yantra Polski Trambesh creates 141% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 29 away

creates per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.01
Boruna Tsareva livada
0.72

allows per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.20
Boruna Tsareva livada
2.62

finishing

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par
Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Polski Trambesh ↓

Boruna Tsareva livada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Yantra Polski Trambesh or draw
86%
Yantra Polski Trambesh or Boruna Tsareva livada
82%
Draw or Boruna Tsareva livada
33%

Winning margin

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
44%
Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
90%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
67%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
40%
Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals
62%
Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals
25%
Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
82%
Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Polski Trambesh at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Boruna Tsareva livada away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 2.01 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.31

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 0.72 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
67%
level
18%
Boruna Tsareva livada scores more
14%

Yantra Polski Trambesh at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Yantra Polski Trambesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Yantra Polski Trambesh 3–0 Boruna Tsareva livada

Yantra Polski Trambesh beat Boruna Tsareva livada 3-0 in Third League - Northwest on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Polski Trambesh.