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Yantra 2019 vs Sportist Svoge — Second League 2018

Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sportist Svoge
Sportist Svoge
5/12/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 32Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Yantra 201947%
×Draw27%
Sportist Svoge25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra 2019
1.39
Sportist Svoge
0.94

Yantra 2019 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 102 away

creates per match

Yantra 2019
1.32
Sportist Svoge
0.87

allows per match

Yantra 2019
1.01
Sportist Svoge
1.46

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par
Sportist Svoge+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Sportist Svoge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw
75%
Yantra 2019 or Sportist Svoge
73%
Draw or Sportist Svoge
53%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
23%
Sportist Svoge wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals
75%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
40%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
16%
Sportist Svoge 1+ goals
61%
Sportist Svoge 2+ goals
24%
Sportist Svoge 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
65%
Sportist Svoge (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Sportist Svoge away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 1.32 + Sportist Svoge defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sportist Svoge attack 0.87 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more
47%
level
27%
Sportist Svoge scores more
25%

Yantra 2019 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yantra 2019 vs Sportist Svoge

Yantra 2019 and Sportist Svoge drew 1-1 in Second League on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Gabrovo.