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Yantra 2019 vs Sozopol — Second League 2018

Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sozopol
Sozopol
3/31/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 24Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Yantra 201953%
×Draw25%
Sozopol21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra 2019
1.57
Sozopol
0.89

Yantra 2019 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 50 away

creates per match

Yantra 2019
1.32
Sozopol
0.76

allows per match

Yantra 2019
1.01
Sozopol
1.82

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par
Sozopol+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Sozopol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw
79%
Yantra 2019 or Sozopol
75%
Draw or Sozopol
47%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
28%
Sozopol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals
79%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
46%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
21%
Sozopol 1+ goals
59%
Sozopol 2+ goals
22%
Sozopol 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
71%
Sozopol (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Sozopol away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 1.32 + Sozopol defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sozopol attack 0.76 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more
53%
level
25%
Sozopol scores more
21%

Yantra 2019 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Yantra 2019 0–1 Sozopol

Sozopol beat Yantra 2019 1-0 in Second League on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Gabrovo.