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Yantra 2019 vs Parva atomna — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
CANC
00:00
Parva atomna
Parva atomna
3/29/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 17Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Yantra 201982%
×Draw13%
Parva atomna6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra 2019
2.71
Parva atomna
0.57

Yantra 2019 creates 375% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 47 away

creates per match

Yantra 2019
2.86
Parva atomna
0.85

allows per match

Yantra 2019
0.29
Parva atomna
2.57

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par
Parva atomna+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Parva atomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw
94%
Yantra 2019 or Parva atomna
87%
Draw or Parva atomna
18%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
61%
Parva atomna wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals
93%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
75%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
50%
Parva atomna 1+ goals
43%
Parva atomna 2+ goals
11%
Parva atomna 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
94%
Parva atomna (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Parva atomna away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 2.86 + Parva atomna defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.71

Parva atomna attack 0.85 + Yantra 2019 defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more
82%
level
13%
Parva atomna scores more
6%

Yantra 2019 at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yantra 2019 face Parva atomna (Third League - Northwest)

Third League - Northwest returns with Yantra 2019 hosting Parva atomna. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Yantra 2019 host Parva atomna at Stadion Hristo Botev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.