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Yantra 2019 vs Montana — Second League 2018

Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Montana
Montana
4/1/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 26Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Yantra 201935%
×Draw29%
Montana36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra 2019
1.09
Montana
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 97 away

creates per match

Yantra 2019
1.32
Montana
1.22

allows per match

Yantra 2019
1.01
Montana
0.86

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par
Montana+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Montana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw
64%
Yantra 2019 or Montana
71%
Draw or Montana
65%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
14%
Montana wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals
66%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
30%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
10%
Montana 1+ goals
67%
Montana 2+ goals
30%
Montana 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
49%
Montana (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Montana away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 1.32 + Montana defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Montana attack 1.22 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more
35%
level
29%
Montana scores more
36%

Montana at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yantra 2019 vs Montana

Yantra 2019 beat Montana 2-1 in Second League on April 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Gabrovo.