Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yantra 2019 vs Lokomotiv Mezdra — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
CANC
00:00
Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
5/10/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 23Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Yantra 201969%
×Draw18%
Lokomotiv Mezdra13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra 2019
2.24
Lokomotiv Mezdra
0.83

Yantra 2019 creates 170% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 106 away

creates per match

Yantra 2019
2.86
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.36

allows per match

Yantra 2019
0.29
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.62

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Lokomotiv Mezdra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw
87%
Yantra 2019 or Lokomotiv Mezdra
82%
Draw or Lokomotiv Mezdra
31%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
45%
Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals
89%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
65%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
38%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
56%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
20%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
85%
Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.62 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 2.86 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.24

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 1.36 + Yantra 2019 defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more
69%
level
18%
Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
13%

Yantra 2019 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yantra 2019 face Lokomotiv Mezdra (Third League - Northwest)

Third League - Northwest returns with Yantra 2019 hosting Lokomotiv Mezdra. Match starts May 10, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Yantra 2019 host Lokomotiv Mezdra at Stadion Hristo Botev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.