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Yantra 2019 vs Levski Krumovgrad — Second League 2018

Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
9/30/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 11Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Yantra 201940%
×Draw28%
Levski Krumovgrad32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra 2019
1.25
Levski Krumovgrad
1.09

Yantra 2019 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 17 away

creates per match

Yantra 2019
1.32
Levski Krumovgrad
1.18

allows per match

Yantra 2019
1.01
Levski Krumovgrad
1.18

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw
68%
Yantra 2019 or Levski Krumovgrad
72%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
60%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
18%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals
71%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
36%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
13%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
66%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
30%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
55%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 1.32 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.18 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more
40%
level
28%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
32%

Yantra 2019 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yantra 2019 vs Levski Krumovgrad

Levski Krumovgrad beat Yantra 2019 1-0 in Second League on September 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Gabrovo.