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Yantra 2019 vs Drenovets — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
CANC
15:00
Drenovets
Drenovets
5/24/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 25Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Yantra 201983%
×Draw12%
Drenovets5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra 2019
2.71
Drenovets
0.53

Yantra 2019 creates 411% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 68 away

creates per match

Yantra 2019
2.86
Drenovets
0.76

allows per match

Yantra 2019
0.29
Drenovets
2.56

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par
Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Drenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw
95%
Yantra 2019 or Drenovets
88%
Draw or Drenovets
17%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
62%
Drenovets wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals
93%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
75%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
50%
Drenovets 1+ goals
41%
Drenovets 2+ goals
10%
Drenovets 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
94%
Drenovets (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 2.86 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.71

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Yantra 2019 defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more
83%
level
12%
Drenovets scores more
5%

Yantra 2019 at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yantra 2019 face Drenovets (Third League - Northwest)

Third League - Northwest returns with Yantra 2019 hosting Drenovets. Match starts May 24, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Yantra 2019 host Drenovets at Stadion Hristo Botev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.