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Yangpyeong vs Paju Citizen — K3 League 2026

Yangpyeong
Yangpyeong
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Paju Citizen
Paju Citizen
9/23/2023K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 27Yangpyeong Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Yangpyeong40%
×Draw28%
Paju Citizen32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yangpyeong
1.26
Paju Citizen
1.11

Yangpyeong creates 14% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 59 away

creates per match

Yangpyeong
1.38
Paju Citizen
1.10

allows per match

Yangpyeong
1.13
Paju Citizen
1.14

finishing

Yangpyeong+0.00on par
Paju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yangpyeong ↓

Paju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yangpyeong or draw
68%
Yangpyeong or Paju Citizen
72%
Draw or Paju Citizen
60%

Winning margin

Yangpyeong wins by 2+
18%
Paju Citizen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Yangpyeong 1+ goals
72%
Yangpyeong 2+ goals
36%
Yangpyeong 3+ goals
13%
Paju Citizen 1+ goals
67%
Paju Citizen 2+ goals
30%
Paju Citizen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Yangpyeong (draw refunded)
55%
Paju Citizen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yangpyeong at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 39 matches

Paju Citizen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yangpyeong attack 1.38 + Paju Citizen defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Paju Citizen attack 1.10 + Yangpyeong defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yangpyeong scores more
40%
level
28%
Paju Citizen scores more
32%

Yangpyeong at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yangpyeong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yangpyeong vs Paju Citizen

Yangpyeong and Paju Citizen drew 1-1 in K3 League on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Yangpyeong Sports Complex in Yangpyeong.