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Yangpyeong vs Gimhae City — K3 League 2026

Yangpyeong
Yangpyeong
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Gimhae City
Gimhae City
H. Seol 89', 67' (pen)
6/28/2025K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 15Yangpyeong Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Yangpyeong35%
×Draw28%
Gimhae City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yangpyeong
1.16
Gimhae City
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 99 away

creates per match

Yangpyeong
1.38
Gimhae City
1.29

allows per match

Yangpyeong
1.13
Gimhae City
0.93

finishing

Yangpyeong+0.00on par
Gimhae City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yangpyeong ↓

Gimhae City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yangpyeong or draw
63%
Yangpyeong or Gimhae City
72%
Draw or Gimhae City
65%

Winning margin

Yangpyeong wins by 2+
14%
Gimhae City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Yangpyeong 1+ goals
69%
Yangpyeong 2+ goals
32%
Yangpyeong 3+ goals
11%
Gimhae City 1+ goals
70%
Gimhae City 2+ goals
34%
Gimhae City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Yangpyeong (draw refunded)
48%
Gimhae City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yangpyeong at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 39 matches

Gimhae City away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yangpyeong attack 1.38 + Gimhae City defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Gimhae City attack 1.29 + Yangpyeong defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Yangpyeong scores more
35%
level
28%
Gimhae City scores more
37%

Gimhae City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gimhae City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
H. SeolPenalty
89'
H. Seol
Yangpyeong
Gimhae
Yang Hyun-Jung
Manager: Yang Hyun-Jung
Son Hyun-Joon
Manager: Son Hyun-Joon

K3 League: Yangpyeong 0–2 Gimhae City

Gimhae City beat Yangpyeong 2-0 in K3 League on June 28, 2025.

Goals: H. Seol (67' pen, 89').

The match was played at Yangpyeong Sports Complex in Yangpyeong.