Yangju Citizen 2–2 Yangpyeong: Result & Stats

Yangju Citizen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Yangpyeong

3/12/2023

K3 League · Round 1Yangju Godeok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Yangju Citizen43%

×Draw28%

Yangpyeong29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yangju CitizenExpected goals in this matchYangpyeong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.03

Yangju Citizen

1.31

Yangpyeong

1.03

Yangju Citizen creates 27% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 42 away

1.06

creates per match

0.67

1.39

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Yangju Citizen

1.06

Yangpyeong

0.67

allows per match

Yangju Citizen

1.39

Yangpyeong

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Yangpyeong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yangju Citizen ↓

Yangpyeong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Yangju Citizen or draw

71%

Yangju Citizen or Yangpyeong

72%

Draw or Yangpyeong

57%

Winning margin

Yangju Citizen wins by 2+

20%

Yangpyeong wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Yangju Citizen 1+ goals

73%

Yangju Citizen 2+ goals

38%

Yangju Citizen 3+ goals

14%

Yangpyeong 1+ goals

64%

Yangpyeong 2+ goals

28%

Yangpyeong 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)

59%

Yangpyeong (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yangju Citizen at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Yangpyeong away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yangju Citizen attack 1.06 + Yangpyeong defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Yangpyeong attack 0.67 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yangju Citizen scores more

43%

level

28%

Yangpyeong scores more

29%

Yangju Citizen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yangju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff