Yangju Citizen 1–1 Paju Citizen: Result & Stats

Yangju Citizen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Paju Citizen

7/25/2021

K3 League · Round 18Yangju Godeok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Yangju Citizen33%

×Draw28%

Paju Citizen39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yangju CitizenExpected goals in this matchPaju Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.25

Yangju Citizen

1.12

Paju Citizen

1.25

Paju Citizen creates 12% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 57 away

1.06

creates per match

1.12

1.39

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Yangju Citizen

1.06

Paju Citizen

1.12

allows per match

Yangju Citizen

1.39

Paju Citizen

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yangju Citizen+0.00on par

Paju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yangju Citizen ↓

Paju Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Yangju Citizen or draw

61%

Yangju Citizen or Paju Citizen

72%

Draw or Paju Citizen

67%

Winning margin

Yangju Citizen wins by 2+

13%

Paju Citizen wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Yangju Citizen 1+ goals

67%

Yangju Citizen 2+ goals

31%

Yangju Citizen 3+ goals

10%

Paju Citizen 1+ goals

71%

Paju Citizen 2+ goals

36%

Paju Citizen 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)

46%

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yangju Citizen at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Paju Citizen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yangju Citizen attack 1.06 + Paju Citizen defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Paju Citizen attack 1.12 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yangju Citizen scores more

33%

level

28%

Paju Citizen scores more

39%

Paju Citizen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Paju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff