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Yangju Citizen vs Mokpo City — K3 League 2026

Yangju Citizen
Yangju Citizen
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Mokpo City
Mokpo City
3/18/2023K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 2Yangju Godeok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Yangju Citizen37%
×Draw27%
Mokpo City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yangju Citizen
1.27
Mokpo City
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 111 away

creates per match

Yangju Citizen
1.06
Mokpo City
1.13

allows per match

Yangju Citizen
1.39
Mokpo City
1.47

finishing

Yangju Citizen+0.00on par
Mokpo City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yangju Citizen ↓

Mokpo City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yangju Citizen or draw
64%
Yangju Citizen or Mokpo City
73%
Draw or Mokpo City
63%

Winning margin

Yangju Citizen wins by 2+
16%
Mokpo City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Yangju Citizen 1+ goals
72%
Yangju Citizen 2+ goals
36%
Yangju Citizen 3+ goals
14%
Mokpo City 1+ goals
72%
Mokpo City 2+ goals
36%
Mokpo City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)
50%
Mokpo City (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yangju Citizen at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Mokpo City away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yangju Citizen attack 1.06 + Mokpo City defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mokpo City attack 1.13 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Yangju Citizen scores more
37%
level
27%
Mokpo City scores more
36%

Yangju Citizen at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Yangju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yangju Citizen vs Mokpo City

Mokpo City beat Yangju Citizen 4-2 in K3 League on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Yangju Godeok Stadium in Yangju.