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Yangju Citizen vs Gyeongju Citizen — K3 League 2026

Yangju Citizen
Yangju Citizen
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Gyeongju Citizen
Gyeongju Citizen
9/5/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 15Yangju Godeok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Yangju Citizen42%
×Draw27%
Gyeongju Citizen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yangju Citizen
1.36
Gyeongju Citizen
1.11

Yangju Citizen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 12 away

creates per match

Yangju Citizen
1.06
Gyeongju Citizen
0.83

allows per match

Yangju Citizen
1.39
Gyeongju Citizen
1.67

finishing

Yangju Citizen+0.00on par
Gyeongju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yangju Citizen ↓

Gyeongju Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yangju Citizen or draw
69%
Yangju Citizen or Gyeongju Citizen
73%
Draw or Gyeongju Citizen
58%

Winning margin

Yangju Citizen wins by 2+
20%
Gyeongju Citizen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Yangju Citizen 1+ goals
74%
Yangju Citizen 2+ goals
39%
Yangju Citizen 3+ goals
16%
Gyeongju Citizen 1+ goals
67%
Gyeongju Citizen 2+ goals
30%
Gyeongju Citizen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)
58%
Gyeongju Citizen (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yangju Citizen at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Gyeongju Citizen away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yangju Citizen attack 1.06 + Gyeongju Citizen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Gyeongju Citizen attack 0.83 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yangju Citizen scores more
42%
level
27%
Gyeongju Citizen scores more
31%

Yangju Citizen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Yangju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yangju Citizen vs Gyeongju Citizen

Yangju Citizen beat Gyeongju Citizen 3-2 in K3 League on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Yangju Godeok Stadium in Yangju.