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Yangju Citizen vs Gangneung City — K3 League 2026

Yangju Citizen
Yangju Citizen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gangneung City
Gangneung City
10/9/2021K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 24Yangju Godeok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Yangju Citizen35%
×Draw28%
Gangneung City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yangju Citizen
1.18
Gangneung City
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 108 away

creates per match

Yangju Citizen
1.06
Gangneung City
1.07

allows per match

Yangju Citizen
1.39
Gangneung City
1.30

finishing

Yangju Citizen+0.00on par
Gangneung City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yangju Citizen ↓

Gangneung City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yangju Citizen or draw
63%
Yangju Citizen or Gangneung City
72%
Draw or Gangneung City
65%

Winning margin

Yangju Citizen wins by 2+
15%
Gangneung City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Yangju Citizen 1+ goals
69%
Yangju Citizen 2+ goals
33%
Yangju Citizen 3+ goals
12%
Gangneung City 1+ goals
71%
Gangneung City 2+ goals
35%
Gangneung City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yangju Citizen (draw refunded)
48%
Gangneung City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yangju Citizen at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Gangneung City away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.30 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yangju Citizen attack 1.06 + Gangneung City defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Gangneung City attack 1.07 + Yangju Citizen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Yangju Citizen scores more
35%
level
28%
Gangneung City scores more
37%

Gangneung City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gangneung City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Yangju Citizen 1–1 Gangneung City

Yangju Citizen and Gangneung City drew 1-1 in K3 League on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Yangju Godeok Stadium in Yangju.