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Yanbian Tigers FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — League One 2018

Yanbian Tigers FC
Yanbian Tigers FC
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
10/28/2018League OneLeague One · Round 29Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium (Yanji)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yanbian Tigers FC41%
×Draw25%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.48
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.33

Yanbian Tigers FC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.40
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.47

allows per match

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.20
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.57

finishing

Yanbian Tigers FC+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Tigers FC ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Yanbian Tigers FC or draw
66%
Yanbian Tigers FC or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
75%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
59%

Winning margin

Yanbian Tigers FC wins by 2+
20%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Yanbian Tigers FC 1+ goals
77%
Yanbian Tigers FC 2+ goals
43%
Yanbian Tigers FC 3+ goals
19%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
74%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
38%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Tigers FC (draw refunded)
55%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Tigers FC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Tigers FC attack 1.40 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.47 + Yanbian Tigers FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yanbian Tigers FC scores more
41%
level
25%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
34%

Yanbian Tigers FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Yanbian Tigers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yanbian Tigers FC vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Yanbian Tigers FC 3-0 in League One on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium (Yanji).