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Yanbian Tigers FC vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — League One 2018

Yanbian Tigers FC
Yanbian Tigers FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
5/5/2018League OneLeague One · Round 9Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium (Yanji)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yanbian Tigers FC34%
×Draw27%
Shenzhen Ruby FC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.20
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.40
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.40

allows per match

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.20
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.00

finishing

Yanbian Tigers FC+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Tigers FC ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yanbian Tigers FC or draw
61%
Yanbian Tigers FC or Shenzhen Ruby FC
73%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
66%

Winning margin

Yanbian Tigers FC wins by 2+
14%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Yanbian Tigers FC 1+ goals
70%
Yanbian Tigers FC 2+ goals
34%
Yanbian Tigers FC 3+ goals
12%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
73%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
37%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Tigers FC (draw refunded)
47%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Tigers FC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Tigers FC attack 1.40 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.40 + Yanbian Tigers FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yanbian Tigers FC scores more
34%
level
27%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
39%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yanbian Tigers FC 1 – 2 Shenzhen Ruby FC

Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Yanbian Tigers FC 2-1 in League One on May 5, 2018.

The match was played at Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium (Yanji).