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Yanbian Tigers FC vs Shanghai Shenxin — League One 2018

Yanbian Tigers FC
Yanbian Tigers FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
4/7/2018League OneLeague One · Round 5Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium (Yanji)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yanbian Tigers FC53%
×Draw23%
Shanghai Shenxin24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.78
Shanghai Shenxin
1.11

Yanbian Tigers FC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

creates per match

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.40
Shanghai Shenxin
1.03

allows per match

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.20
Shanghai Shenxin
2.16

finishing

Yanbian Tigers FC+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Tigers FC ↓

Shanghai Shenxin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Yanbian Tigers FC or draw
76%
Yanbian Tigers FC or Shanghai Shenxin
77%
Draw or Shanghai Shenxin
47%

Winning margin

Yanbian Tigers FC wins by 2+
29%
Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Yanbian Tigers FC 1+ goals
83%
Yanbian Tigers FC 2+ goals
53%
Yanbian Tigers FC 3+ goals
26%
Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
67%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
30%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Tigers FC (draw refunded)
69%
Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Tigers FC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Shanghai Shenxin away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Tigers FC attack 1.40 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.78

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.03 + Yanbian Tigers FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yanbian Tigers FC scores more
53%
level
23%
Shanghai Shenxin scores more
24%

Yanbian Tigers FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yanbian Tigers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Yanbian Tigers FC 0–0 Shanghai Shenxin

Yanbian Tigers FC and Shanghai Shenxin drew 0-0 in League One on April 7, 2018.

The match was played at Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium (Yanji).