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Yanbian Tigers FC vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2018

Yanbian Tigers FC
Yanbian Tigers FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
4/21/2018League OneLeague One · Round 7Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium (Yanji)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yanbian Tigers FC42%
×Draw26%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.40
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.16

Yanbian Tigers FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 124 away

creates per match

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.40
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.12

allows per match

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.20
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.40

finishing

Yanbian Tigers FC+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Tigers FC ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Yanbian Tigers FC or draw
69%
Yanbian Tigers FC or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
74%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
58%

Winning margin

Yanbian Tigers FC wins by 2+
20%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Yanbian Tigers FC 1+ goals
75%
Yanbian Tigers FC 2+ goals
41%
Yanbian Tigers FC 3+ goals
17%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
69%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
32%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Tigers FC (draw refunded)
58%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Tigers FC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Tigers FC attack 1.40 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Yanbian Tigers FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yanbian Tigers FC scores more
42%
level
26%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
31%

Yanbian Tigers FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Yanbian Tigers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yanbian Tigers FC vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Heilongjiang Lava Spring beat Yanbian Tigers FC 3-2 in League One on April 21, 2018.

The match was played at Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium (Yanji).