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Yanbian Longding vs Wuxi Wugou — League One 2026

Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wuxi Wugou
Wuxi Wugou
8/19/2023League OneLeague One · Round 19Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Yanbian Longding54%
×Draw24%
Wuxi Wugou22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yanbian Longding
1.75
Wuxi Wugou
1.03

Yanbian Longding creates 70% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 38 away

creates per match

Yanbian Longding
1.56
Wuxi Wugou
1.13

allows per match

Yanbian Longding
0.94
Wuxi Wugou
1.95

finishing

Yanbian Longding+0.00on par
Wuxi Wugou+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Longding ↓

Wuxi Wugou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Yanbian Longding or draw
78%
Yanbian Longding or Wuxi Wugou
76%
Draw or Wuxi Wugou
46%

Winning margin

Yanbian Longding wins by 2+
30%
Wuxi Wugou wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yanbian Longding 1+ goals
83%
Yanbian Longding 2+ goals
52%
Yanbian Longding 3+ goals
25%
Wuxi Wugou 1+ goals
64%
Wuxi Wugou 2+ goals
28%
Wuxi Wugou 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)
71%
Wuxi Wugou (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Longding at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 52 matches

Wuxi Wugou away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.95 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Longding attack 1.56 + Wuxi Wugou defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.75

Wuxi Wugou attack 1.13 + Yanbian Longding defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Yanbian Longding scores more
54%
level
24%
Wuxi Wugou scores more
22%

Yanbian Longding at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Yanbian Longding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Yanbian Longding 2–2 Wuxi Wugou

Yanbian Longding and Wuxi Wugou drew 2-2 in League One on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium in Yanji.