Yanbian Longding 1–5 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Yanbian Longding

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

11/17/2022

FA Cup · 2nd RoundJiangning Football Training Base Field No.2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Yanbian Longding23%

×Draw20%

Shijiazhuang Y. J.56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yanbian LongdingExpected goals in this matchShijiazhuang Y. J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

2.20

Yanbian Longding

1.35

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

2.20

Shijiazhuang Y. J. creates 63% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.50

creates per match

1.40

3.00

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Yanbian Longding

0.50

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.40

allows per match

Yanbian Longding

3.00

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yanbian Longding+0.00on par

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Longding ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Yanbian Longding or draw

44%

Yanbian Longding or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

80%

Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

77%

Winning margin

Yanbian Longding wins by 2+

10%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Yanbian Longding 1+ goals

74%

Yanbian Longding 2+ goals

39%

Yanbian Longding 3+ goals

15%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

89%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

64%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)

29%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Longding at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Longding attack 0.50 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.40 + Yanbian Longding defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Yanbian Longding scores more

23%

level

20%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

56%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff