Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yanbian Longding vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — League One 2018

Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
6/16/2024League OneLeague One · Round 14Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Yanbian Longding44%
×Draw25%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yanbian Longding
1.52
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.25

Yanbian Longding creates 22% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 30 away

creates per match

Yanbian Longding
1.56
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.57

allows per match

Yanbian Longding
0.94
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.47

finishing

Yanbian Longding+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Longding ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Yanbian Longding or draw
69%
Yanbian Longding or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
75%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
56%

Winning margin

Yanbian Longding wins by 2+
22%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Yanbian Longding 1+ goals
78%
Yanbian Longding 2+ goals
45%
Yanbian Longding 3+ goals
20%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
71%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
36%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)
58%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Longding at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 52 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Longding attack 1.56 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.57 + Yanbian Longding defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Yanbian Longding scores more
44%
level
25%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
31%

Yanbian Longding at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yanbian Longding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Yanbian Longding 2–2 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Yanbian Longding and Guangzhou Evergrande FC drew 2-2 in League One on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium in Yanji.