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Yanbian Longding vs Dalian Aerbin — FA Cup 2019

Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
6/22/2023FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundYanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Yanbian Longding11%
×Draw18%
Dalian Aerbin71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yanbian Longding
0.75
Dalian Aerbin
2.25

Dalian Aerbin creates 200% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Yanbian Longding
0.50
Dalian Aerbin
1.50

allows per match

Yanbian Longding
3.00
Dalian Aerbin
1.00

finishing

Yanbian Longding+0.00on par
Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Longding ↓

Dalian Aerbin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–213%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Yanbian Longding or draw
29%
Yanbian Longding or Dalian Aerbin
82%
Draw or Dalian Aerbin
89%

Winning margin

Yanbian Longding wins by 2+
3%
Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Yanbian Longding 1+ goals
53%
Yanbian Longding 2+ goals
17%
Yanbian Longding 3+ goals
4%
Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
89%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
65%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)
13%
Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Longding at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Dalian Aerbin away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Longding attack 0.50 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.50 + Yanbian Longding defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Yanbian Longding scores more
11%
level
18%
Dalian Aerbin scores more
71%

Dalian Aerbin at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Dalian Aerbin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yanbian Longding vs Dalian Aerbin

Dalian Aerbin beat Yanbian Longding 2-0 in FA Cup on June 22, 2023.

The match was played at Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium in Yanji.