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Yanapuma W vs FBC Melgar W — Liga Women 2026

Yanapuma W
Yanapuma W
Preview
15:00
FBC Melgar W
FBC Melgar W
8/6/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Clausura - 3
71%
Yanapuma W
model favours
71%16%13%
2–0
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Yanapuma W71%
×Draw16%
FBC Melgar W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yanapuma W
2.58
FBC Melgar W
1.00

Yanapuma W creates 158% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Yanapuma W
2.33
FBC Melgar W
1.33

allows per match

Yanapuma W
0.67
FBC Melgar W
2.83

finishing

Yanapuma W+0.00on par
FBC Melgar W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanapuma W ↓

FBC Melgar W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Yanapuma W or draw
87%
Yanapuma W or FBC Melgar W
84%
Draw or FBC Melgar W
29%

Winning margin

Yanapuma W wins by 2+
49%
FBC Melgar W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Yanapuma W 1+ goals
92%
Yanapuma W 2+ goals
72%
Yanapuma W 3+ goals
47%
FBC Melgar W 1+ goals
63%
FBC Melgar W 2+ goals
26%
FBC Melgar W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yanapuma W (draw refunded)
85%
FBC Melgar W (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanapuma W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

FBC Melgar W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanapuma W attack 2.33 + FBC Melgar W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.58

FBC Melgar W attack 1.33 + Yanapuma W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Yanapuma W scores more
71%
level
16%
FBC Melgar W scores more
13%

Yanapuma W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Yanapuma W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LWLWW
W
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yanapuma W vs FBC Melgar W — Match Preview

Yanapuma W face FBC Melgar W on August 6, 2026 in this Liga Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.