FBC Melgar W 3–0 Yanapuma W: Result & Stats

FBC Melgar W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Yanapuma W

3/28/2026

Liga Women · Apertura - 3Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FBC Melgar W81%

×Draw12%

Yanapuma W6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FBC Melgar WExpected goals in this matchYanapuma W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

0.70

FBC Melgar W

2.90

Yanapuma W

0.70

FBC Melgar W creates 314% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.60

creates per match

0.40

1.00

allows per match

4.20

creates per match

FBC Melgar W

1.60

Yanapuma W

0.40

allows per match

FBC Melgar W

1.00

Yanapuma W

4.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FBC Melgar W+0.00on par

Yanapuma W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar W ↓

Yanapuma W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FBC Melgar W or draw

94%

FBC Melgar W or Yanapuma W

88%

Draw or Yanapuma W

19%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar W wins by 2+

62%

Yanapuma W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

FBC Melgar W 1+ goals

94%

FBC Melgar W 2+ goals

78%

FBC Melgar W 3+ goals

54%

Yanapuma W 1+ goals

50%

Yanapuma W 2+ goals

16%

Yanapuma W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar W (draw refunded)

93%

Yanapuma W (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar W at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Yanapuma W away — creates 0.40, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar W attack 1.60 + Yanapuma W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.90

Yanapuma W attack 0.40 + FBC Melgar W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

FBC Melgar W scores more

81%

level

12%

Yanapuma W scores more

6%

FBC Melgar W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "FBC Melgar W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff