Yambol 1915 1–0 Zagorets: Result & Stats

Yambol 1915

FT

1 – 0

Zagorets

3/15/2025

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 24Stadion Tundzha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Yambol 191534%

×Draw25%

Zagorets41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yambol 1915Expected goals in this matchZagorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.49

Yambol 1915

1.34

Zagorets

1.49

Zagorets creates 11% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 135 away

1.54

creates per match

1.57

1.41

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Yambol 1915

1.54

Zagorets

1.57

allows per match

Yambol 1915

1.41

Zagorets

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yambol 1915+0.00on par

Zagorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yambol 1915 ↓

Zagorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Yambol 1915 or draw

59%

Yambol 1915 or Zagorets

75%

Draw or Zagorets

66%

Winning margin

Yambol 1915 wins by 2+

15%

Zagorets wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Yambol 1915 1+ goals

74%

Yambol 1915 2+ goals

39%

Yambol 1915 3+ goals

15%

Zagorets 1+ goals

77%

Zagorets 2+ goals

44%

Zagorets 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)

46%

Zagorets (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yambol 1915 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Zagorets away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yambol 1915 attack 1.54 + Zagorets defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.34

Zagorets attack 1.57 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yambol 1915 scores more

34%

level

25%

Zagorets scores more

41%

Zagorets at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff