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Yambol 1915 vs Rozova dolina — Third League - Southeast 2018

Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
FT
2 – 0
Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
6/1/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 38Stadion Tundzha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Yambol 191546%
×Draw24%
Rozova dolina30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yambol 1915
1.64
Rozova dolina
1.27

Yambol 1915 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 136 away

creates per match

Yambol 1915
1.54
Rozova dolina
1.13

allows per match

Yambol 1915
1.41
Rozova dolina
1.74

finishing

Yambol 1915+0.00on par
Rozova dolina+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yambol 1915 ↓

Rozova dolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Yambol 1915 or draw
70%
Yambol 1915 or Rozova dolina
76%
Draw or Rozova dolina
54%

Winning margin

Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
24%
Rozova dolina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Yambol 1915 1+ goals
81%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
49%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
23%
Rozova dolina 1+ goals
72%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
36%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
61%
Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yambol 1915 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Rozova dolina away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.74 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yambol 1915 attack 1.54 + Rozova dolina defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rozova dolina attack 1.13 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Yambol 1915 scores more
46%
level
24%
Rozova dolina scores more
30%

Yambol 1915 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Yambol 1915 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yambol 1915 vs Rozova dolina

Yambol 1915 beat Rozova dolina 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Tundzha in Yambol.