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Yambol 1915 vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
FT
3 – 0
Karnobat
Karnobat
5/14/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 35Stadion Tundzha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Yambol 191559%
×Draw21%
Karnobat20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yambol 1915
2.06
Karnobat
1.10

Yambol 1915 creates 87% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 118 away

creates per match

Yambol 1915
1.54
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Yambol 1915
1.41
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Yambol 1915+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yambol 1915 ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Yambol 1915 or draw
80%
Yambol 1915 or Karnobat
79%
Draw or Karnobat
41%

Winning margin

Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
36%
Karnobat wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Yambol 1915 1+ goals
87%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
61%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
34%
Karnobat 1+ goals
67%
Karnobat 2+ goals
30%
Karnobat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
75%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yambol 1915 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yambol 1915 attack 1.54 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.06

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Yambol 1915 scores more
59%
level
21%
Karnobat scores more
20%

Yambol 1915 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Yambol 1915 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Yambol 1915 3–0 Karnobat

Yambol 1915 beat Karnobat 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Tundzha in Yambol.