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Yambol 1915 vs Botev Plovdiv III — Third League - Southeast 2018

Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
3/29/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 26Stadion Tundzha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Yambol 191551%
×Draw23%
Botev Plovdiv III27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yambol 1915
1.85
Botev Plovdiv III
1.28

Yambol 1915 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 19 away

creates per match

Yambol 1915
1.54
Botev Plovdiv III
1.16

allows per match

Yambol 1915
1.41
Botev Plovdiv III
2.16

finishing

Yambol 1915+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yambol 1915 ↓

Botev Plovdiv III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Yambol 1915 or draw
73%
Yambol 1915 or Botev Plovdiv III
77%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv III
49%

Winning margin

Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
28%
Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Yambol 1915 1+ goals
84%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
55%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
28%
Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
72%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
37%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
66%
Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yambol 1915 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Botev Plovdiv III away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yambol 1915 attack 1.54 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.85

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.16 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Yambol 1915 scores more
51%
level
23%
Botev Plovdiv III scores more
27%

Yambol 1915 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Yambol 1915 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yambol 1915 vs Botev Plovdiv III

Yambol 1915 beat Botev Plovdiv III 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Tundzha in Yambol.