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Yambol 1915 vs Botev Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Yambol 1915
Yambol 1915
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
12/2/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 16Stadion Tundzha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Yambol 191537%
×Draw25%
Botev Plovdiv II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yambol 1915
1.40
Botev Plovdiv II
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 19 away

creates per match

Yambol 1915
1.54
Botev Plovdiv II
1.47

allows per match

Yambol 1915
1.41
Botev Plovdiv II
1.26

finishing

Yambol 1915+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yambol 1915 ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Yambol 1915 or draw
62%
Yambol 1915 or Botev Plovdiv II
75%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv II
63%

Winning margin

Yambol 1915 wins by 2+
17%
Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Yambol 1915 1+ goals
75%
Yambol 1915 2+ goals
41%
Yambol 1915 3+ goals
17%
Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
76%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
42%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Yambol 1915 (draw refunded)
49%
Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yambol 1915 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 118 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yambol 1915 attack 1.54 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.40

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.47 + Yambol 1915 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Yambol 1915 scores more
37%
level
25%
Botev Plovdiv II scores more
38%

Botev Plovdiv II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Yambol 1915 0–2 Botev Plovdiv II

Botev Plovdiv II beat Yambol 1915 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Tundzha in Yambol.