Yagüe 1–1 Racing Rioja II: Result & Stats

Yagüe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Rioja II

Israel Duval 64'

Y. El Mariji 50'

4/22/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 30Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yagüe52%

×Draw23%

Racing Rioja II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YagüeExpected goals in this matchRacing Rioja II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.15

Yagüe

1.80

Racing Rioja II

1.15

Yagüe creates 57% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 15 away

1.54

creates per match

0.60

1.69

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Yagüe

1.54

Racing Rioja II

0.60

allows per match

Yagüe

1.69

Racing Rioja II

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yagüe+0.00on par

Racing Rioja II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yagüe ↓

Racing Rioja II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Yagüe or draw

76%

Yagüe or Racing Rioja II

77%

Draw or Racing Rioja II

48%

Winning margin

Yagüe wins by 2+

29%

Racing Rioja II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Yagüe 1+ goals

83%

Yagüe 2+ goals

54%

Yagüe 3+ goals

27%

Racing Rioja II 1+ goals

68%

Racing Rioja II 2+ goals

32%

Racing Rioja II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Yagüe (draw refunded)

68%

Racing Rioja II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yagüe at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 91 matches

Racing Rioja II away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yagüe attack 1.54 + Racing Rioja II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.80

Racing Rioja II attack 0.60 + Yagüe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Yagüe scores more

52%

level

23%

Racing Rioja II scores more

24%

Yagüe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Yagüe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

Alberto Ocón← Diego Fernandez

50'

Y. El Mariji

56'

Pablo Martínez← Adrián Corral

64'

Alberto Aparicio← Naim Hamoudi

64'

Asier Jimenez← Chen Xin

64'

Israel Duval

68'

Manuel Hernandez← Jorge Lazaro

69'

Yang Tang← Mohamed Araar

80'

Oliver Garnica← Mario Navascués

Yagüe

Racing

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Jesús Carazo

48'▲Alberto Ocón←▼Diego Fernandez

56'▲Pablo Martínez←▼Adrián Corral

68'▲Manuel Hernandez←▼Jorge Lazaro

Yagüe substitutes

OcónMartínezHernandez

Manager: Guillermo Zangróniz

64'▲Alberto Aparicio←▼Naim Hamoudi

64'▲Asier Jimenez←▼Chen Xin

69'▲Yang Tang←▼Mohamed Araar

80'▲Oliver Garnica←▼Mario Navascués

Racing Rioja II substitutes

AparicioJimenezTangGarnica