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Yagüe vs Racing Rioja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Yagüe
Yagüe
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
3/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 19Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Yagüe36%
×Draw24%
Racing Rioja40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yagüe
1.48
Racing Rioja
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 30 away

creates per match

Yagüe
1.54
Racing Rioja
1.47

allows per match

Yagüe
1.69
Racing Rioja
1.43

finishing

Yagüe+0.00on par
Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yagüe ↓

Racing Rioja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Yagüe or draw
60%
Yagüe or Racing Rioja
76%
Draw or Racing Rioja
64%

Winning margin

Yagüe wins by 2+
17%
Racing Rioja wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Yagüe 1+ goals
77%
Yagüe 2+ goals
43%
Yagüe 3+ goals
19%
Racing Rioja 1+ goals
79%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
47%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Yagüe (draw refunded)
47%
Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yagüe at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 91 matches

Racing Rioja away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yagüe attack 1.54 + Racing Rioja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Racing Rioja attack 1.47 + Yagüe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yagüe scores more
36%
level
24%
Racing Rioja scores more
40%

Racing Rioja at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Racing Rioja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yagüe vs Racing Rioja

Yagüe beat Racing Rioja 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Salvador in Logroño.