Yagüe 3–4 Casalarreina: Result & Stats

Yagüe

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Casalarreina

3/25/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 26Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Yagüe39%

×Draw24%

Casalarreina37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YagüeExpected goals in this matchCasalarreina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.52

Yagüe

1.56

Casalarreina

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

1.54

creates per match

1.34

1.69

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Yagüe

1.54

Casalarreina

1.34

allows per match

Yagüe

1.69

Casalarreina

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yagüe+0.00on par

Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yagüe ↓

Casalarreina →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Yagüe or draw

63%

Yagüe or Casalarreina

76%

Draw or Casalarreina

61%

Winning margin

Yagüe wins by 2+

19%

Casalarreina wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Yagüe 1+ goals

79%

Yagüe 2+ goals

46%

Yagüe 3+ goals

21%

Casalarreina 1+ goals

78%

Casalarreina 2+ goals

45%

Casalarreina 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Yagüe (draw refunded)

51%

Casalarreina (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Yagüe at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 91 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Yagüe attack 1.54 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + Yagüe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yagüe scores more

39%

level

24%

Casalarreina scores more

37%

Yagüe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yagüe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff