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Yagüe vs Berceo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Yagüe
Yagüe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Berceo
Berceo
1/21/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 17Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Yagüe40%
×Draw24%
Berceo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yagüe
1.56
Berceo
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 111 away

creates per match

Yagüe
1.54
Berceo
1.25

allows per match

Yagüe
1.69
Berceo
1.59

finishing

Yagüe+0.00on par
Berceo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yagüe ↓

Berceo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Yagüe or draw
64%
Yagüe or Berceo
76%
Draw or Berceo
60%

Winning margin

Yagüe wins by 2+
20%
Berceo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Yagüe 1+ goals
79%
Yagüe 2+ goals
46%
Yagüe 3+ goals
21%
Berceo 1+ goals
77%
Berceo 2+ goals
43%
Berceo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Yagüe (draw refunded)
53%
Berceo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yagüe at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 91 matches

Berceo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yagüe attack 1.54 + Berceo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Berceo attack 1.25 + Yagüe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yagüe scores more
40%
level
24%
Berceo scores more
36%

Yagüe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yagüe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Yagüe 2–1 Berceo

Yagüe beat Berceo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 21, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Salvador in Logroño.