Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yagüe vs Alberite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Yagüe
Yagüe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alberite
Alberite
11/2/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 11Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Yagüe56%
×Draw21%
Alberite23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yagüe
2.08
Alberite
1.27

Yagüe creates 64% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 46 away

creates per match

Yagüe
1.54
Alberite
0.85

allows per match

Yagüe
1.69
Alberite
2.61

finishing

Yagüe+0.00on par
Alberite+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yagüe ↓

Alberite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Yagüe or draw
77%
Yagüe or Alberite
79%
Draw or Alberite
44%

Winning margin

Yagüe wins by 2+
33%
Alberite wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Yagüe 1+ goals
87%
Yagüe 2+ goals
61%
Yagüe 3+ goals
34%
Alberite 1+ goals
72%
Alberite 2+ goals
36%
Alberite 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Yagüe (draw refunded)
71%
Alberite (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yagüe at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 91 matches

Alberite away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yagüe attack 1.54 + Alberite defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.08

Alberite attack 0.85 + Yagüe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Yagüe scores more
56%
level
21%
Alberite scores more
23%

Yagüe at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Yagüe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Yagüe 2–1 Alberite

Yagüe beat Alberite 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Salvador in Logroño.