Yafoot 1–2 Young Sport Academy: Result & Stats

Yafoot

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Young Sport Academy

4/15/2023

Elite One · Round 20Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Yafoot33%

×Draw29%

Young Sport Academy38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YafootExpected goals in this matchYoung Sport Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.19

Yafoot

1.08

Young Sport Academy

1.19

Young Sport Academy creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 79 away

0.84

creates per match

0.94

1.44

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Yafoot

0.84

Young Sport Academy

0.94

allows per match

Yafoot

1.44

Young Sport Academy

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par

Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

Young Sport Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw

62%

Yafoot or Young Sport Academy

71%

Draw or Young Sport Academy

67%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+

13%

Young Sport Academy wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals

66%

Yafoot 2+ goals

29%

Yafoot 3+ goals

10%

Young Sport Academy 1+ goals

70%

Young Sport Academy 2+ goals

33%

Young Sport Academy 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)

46%

Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Young Sport Academy away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.84 + Young Sport Academy defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.08

Young Sport Academy attack 0.94 + Yafoot defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Yafoot scores more

33%

level

29%

Young Sport Academy scores more

38%

Young Sport Academy at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Young Sport Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff