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Yafoot vs Union Douala — Elite Two 2020

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
0 – 7
Union Douala
Union Douala
6/21/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Relegation Group - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yafoot41%
×Draw24%
Union Douala35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
1.59
Union Douala
1.44

Yafoot creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.82
Union Douala
1.45

allows per match

Yafoot
1.43
Union Douala
2.36

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

Union Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
65%
Yafoot or Union Douala
76%
Draw or Union Douala
59%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
21%
Union Douala wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
80%
Yafoot 2+ goals
47%
Yafoot 3+ goals
21%
Union Douala 1+ goals
76%
Union Douala 2+ goals
42%
Union Douala 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
54%
Union Douala (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Union Douala away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.82 + Union Douala defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.59

Union Douala attack 1.45 + Yafoot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yafoot scores more
41%
level
24%
Union Douala scores more
35%

Yafoot at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Yafoot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yafoot vs Union Douala

Union Douala beat Yafoot 7-0 in Elite Two on June 21, 2026.