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Yafoot vs PWD Bamenda — Elite One 2019

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
4/6/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 7Limbe Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Yafoot30%
×Draw29%
PWD Bamenda41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
1.01
PWD Bamenda
1.23

PWD Bamenda creates 22% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 99 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.84
PWD Bamenda
1.01

allows per match

Yafoot
1.44
PWD Bamenda
1.18

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

PWD Bamenda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
59%
Yafoot or PWD Bamenda
71%
Draw or PWD Bamenda
70%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
11%
PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
64%
Yafoot 2+ goals
27%
Yafoot 3+ goals
8%
PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
71%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
35%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
42%
PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

PWD Bamenda away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.84 + PWD Bamenda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.01

PWD Bamenda attack 1.01 + Yafoot defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yafoot scores more
30%
level
29%
PWD Bamenda scores more
41%

PWD Bamenda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "PWD Bamenda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Yafoot 1–3 PWD Bamenda

PWD Bamenda beat Yafoot 3-1 in Elite One on April 6, 2022.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium in Limbe.