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Yafoot vs New Star — Elite One 2019

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
New Star
New Star
6/14/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 27Middle Farm Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Yafoot40%
×Draw29%
New Star32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
1.19
New Star
1.03

Yafoot creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 37 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.84
New Star
0.62

allows per match

Yafoot
1.44
New Star
1.54

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
New Star+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

New Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
68%
Yafoot or New Star
71%
Draw or New Star
60%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
17%
New Star wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
70%
Yafoot 2+ goals
33%
Yafoot 3+ goals
12%
New Star 1+ goals
64%
New Star 2+ goals
28%
New Star 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
56%
New Star (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

New Star away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.84 + New Star defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.19

New Star attack 0.62 + Yafoot defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yafoot scores more
40%
level
29%
New Star scores more
32%

Yafoot at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yafoot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yafoot vs New Star

Yafoot beat New Star 3-0 in Elite One on June 14, 2022.

The match was played at Middle Farm Stadium in Limbé.