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Yafoot vs Les Astres — Elite One 2019

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
1 – 2
Les Astres
Les Astres
12/20/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 8Stade Olembe Annexe A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Yafoot32%
×Draw28%
Les Astres40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
1.07
Les Astres
1.23

Les Astres creates 15% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 75 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.84
Les Astres
1.03

allows per match

Yafoot
1.44
Les Astres
1.31

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

Les Astres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
60%
Yafoot or Les Astres
72%
Draw or Les Astres
68%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
12%
Les Astres wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
66%
Yafoot 2+ goals
29%
Yafoot 3+ goals
9%
Les Astres 1+ goals
71%
Les Astres 2+ goals
35%
Les Astres 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
45%
Les Astres (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.84 + Les Astres defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.07

Les Astres attack 1.03 + Yafoot defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yafoot scores more
32%
level
28%
Les Astres scores more
40%

Les Astres at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Yafoot 1–2 Les Astres

Les Astres beat Yafoot 2-1 in Elite One on December 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Olembe Annexe A in Yaoundé.