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Yafoot vs Leopard de Douala — Elite Two 2020

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
1 – 0
Leopard de Douala
Leopard de Douala
4/14/2024Elite TwoElite Two · Relegation Round - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Yafoot43%
×Draw28%
Leopard de Douala29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
1.32
Leopard de Douala
1.03

Yafoot creates 28% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.82
Leopard de Douala
0.64

allows per match

Yafoot
1.43
Leopard de Douala
1.82

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
Leopard de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

Leopard de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
71%
Yafoot or Leopard de Douala
72%
Draw or Leopard de Douala
57%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
20%
Leopard de Douala wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
73%
Yafoot 2+ goals
38%
Yafoot 3+ goals
15%
Leopard de Douala 1+ goals
64%
Leopard de Douala 2+ goals
28%
Leopard de Douala 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
60%
Leopard de Douala (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Leopard de Douala away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.82 + Leopard de Douala defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.32

Leopard de Douala attack 0.64 + Yafoot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yafoot scores more
43%
level
28%
Leopard de Douala scores more
29%

Yafoot at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yafoot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Yafoot 1–0 Leopard de Douala

Yafoot beat Leopard de Douala 1-0 in Elite Two on April 14, 2024.