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Yafoot vs Kumba — Elite Two 2020

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
1 – 2
Kumba
Kumba
2/13/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Yafoot38%
×Draw29%
Kumba33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
1.19
Kumba
1.08

Yafoot creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.82
Kumba
0.73

allows per match

Yafoot
1.43
Kumba
1.55

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
Kumba+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

Kumba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
67%
Yafoot or Kumba
71%
Draw or Kumba
62%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
16%
Kumba wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
70%
Yafoot 2+ goals
33%
Yafoot 3+ goals
12%
Kumba 1+ goals
66%
Kumba 2+ goals
29%
Kumba 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
54%
Kumba (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Kumba away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.82 + Kumba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.19

Kumba attack 0.73 + Yafoot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Yafoot scores more
38%
level
29%
Kumba scores more
33%

Yafoot at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Yafoot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Yafoot 1–2 Kumba

Kumba beat Yafoot 2-1 in Elite Two on February 13, 2026.