Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yafoot vs Jeunes Fauves — Elite One 2019

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
1 – 2
Jeunes Fauves
Jeunes Fauves
10/16/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 1Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Yafoot39%
×Draw27%
Jeunes Fauves34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
1.32
Jeunes Fauves
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 47 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.84
Jeunes Fauves
0.98

allows per match

Yafoot
1.44
Jeunes Fauves
1.81

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

Jeunes Fauves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
66%
Yafoot or Jeunes Fauves
73%
Draw or Jeunes Fauves
61%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
18%
Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
73%
Yafoot 2+ goals
38%
Yafoot 3+ goals
15%
Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals
70%
Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals
34%
Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
54%
Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Jeunes Fauves away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.84 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.32

Jeunes Fauves attack 0.98 + Yafoot defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yafoot scores more
39%
level
27%
Jeunes Fauves scores more
34%

Yafoot at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yafoot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Yafoot 1–2 Jeunes Fauves

Jeunes Fauves beat Yafoot 2-1 in Elite One on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport in Yaoundé.